Lake Effect Snow Warning is in effect until Wednesday at 1:00 PM
Lake Effect Snow Watch in effect from 1:00 AM Thursday, until 4:00 AM Friday
Latest 4 Warn Weather Forecast:
A Lake Effect Snow WARNING will be in effect for Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Chautauqua & Cattaraugus Counties through Wednesday PM. A Lake Effect Snow ADVISORY for lesser amounts will be in effect for Allegany County, though the impact will still be significant due to blowing snow. The most likely location for the highest snow totals will be the Buffalo Southtowns, much of Buffalo, and the eastern ‘burbs (Alden-Lancaster-Depew). There may be a rather sharp cutoff to this heaviest snowfall, but some heavy snow still could also reach some of the nearby Ntowns & NE ‘burbs (Kenmore, Amherst, Clarence, Newstead). As of this evening heavy accumulations north of Buffalo are looking fairly unlikely. There is still uncertainty as to just how far north the intense band will reach. Just a few degrees difference in wind direction on a compass from say 250 degrees to 240 degrees can impact an additional 100k+ people in the Ntowns, so stay tuned to this situation. (It’s not enough for us to know W vs SW winds; we need to forecast the precise wind direction to properly locate the band.) This will be a disruptive lake effect storm with Blowing & Drifting snow, and some Whiteouts in the band, producing Near Blizzard conditions. There will also be “thundersnow” in the band from time to time leading to very heavy accumulation rates.
Lake effect snow will begin to take shape this evening and intensify later over Southern Erie, Wyoming, Northern Chautauqua & Northern Cattaraugus Cos (aka “Ski Country”). This band will become well organized and shift north to the Buffalo Southtowns before dawn, reaching much of Buffalo by or during the morning commute. This will make for difficult and sometimes treacherous travel within the lake snow band. The lake snow will begin to shift south toward Ski Country again tomorrow evening for several hours before shifting north again toward morning. The lake snow will be weakening on Wednesday, with warmer air moving in aloft. Another system will bring more widespread snow showers back to the region toward evening, and some additional lake snow Wednesday night into parts of Thursday. That lake snow will be significant, but not quite so potent as what’s going to develop by tomorrow morning. After a cold Friday, Saturday will be dry and not quite so cold. Significant warming will develop for Sunday and Monday, accompanied by showers. This may present a flooding threat to areas which receive heavy snow tomorrow & tomorrow night.
TUESDAY; Heavy to Intense Lake Effect Snow in much of Buffalo, the Buffalo Stowns and eastern suburbs (including at least up to the Thruway in Genesee County), with 10-20″ new accumulation possible. Blowing Snow with some Whiteouts, and thundersnow will occur at times producing very heavy bursts of snow. Some of the heavy snow may reach parts of Amherst, Clarence, Newstead and Kenmore, but there is much less chance of heavy amounts for the Northtown ‘burbs…the closer to Buffalo, the greater the chance. SW: 15-30 with stronger gusts and very hazardous travel within the lake snow band.
TUESDAY NIGHT; Intense lake snow will shift south for several hours, reaching parts of Ski Country and the more distant Southtowns with additional heavy accumulations. Blowing Snow & thundersnow will be a problem for evening travel. The lake snow will be shifting back across the metro area morning, and beginning to weaken. Low: 10-20.
WEDNESDAY; Weakening lake snow diminishes to lighter snow showers. More snow showers arrive later in the day and at night. Chance of lake effect snow redeveloping at night. Storm totals by Wednesday: 1-3 feet from Buffalo and the eastern ‘burbs to near Batavia down into Ski Country. Heaviest amounts in Buffalo Stowns and ern burbs. Lesser amounts in nearby Ntowns, and much less from near Tonawanda Creek north, as well as much less in the southern half of the southern tier counties. High: 23 hills-32 lakeshore. SW/S 15-25.
THURSDAY; Snow showers with some lake effect snow. Some blowing snow. High: 28.
FRIDAY; Partly to Mostly Cloudy & continued Cold with scattered lighter snow showers. High: 28.
SATURDAY; Partly Sunny & not as cold. Dry. High: 32 hills-35.
SUNDAY; Increasing Clouds, Breezy & Much Milder with showers developing. High: 44-48.
MONDAY; Showers, Windy. AM high: 50, turning cooler overnight. The Sunday-Monday period will have to be monitored for Flooding Potential where heavy snow fell.
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