Latest 4 Warn Forecast from Meteorologist Andrew Baglini:
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING will be in effect Monday at 5PM through Wednesday morning for all of Western New York except Niagara and Orleans counties.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH is in effect for the period from Monday evening through Wednesday morning for all of Western New York except Niagara and Orleans counties.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is in effect across the Southern Tier as well as Niagara and Orleans counties.
An approaching storm will pave the way for an unsettled week ahead. As this system passes mostly south and east of WNY, showers will be frequent across much of the region. Temperatures may be high enough in the morning to support a mix of rain and snow, especially east of the Genesee Valley. This will keep accumulations on the lighter side, but most of the region will see all snow. A general 1-3” are likely, with some spots even higher. As this arctic front passes, a re-enforced shot of cold air will return, leading to a significant lake effect snow event.
Lake effect snow warnings kick in to effect Monday at 5PM, as the arctic air sets in place and a general westerly flow returns. Models indicate that the initial lake effect band will set up in southern Erie county and northern Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties Monday evening, before moving south into the heart of ski country, So. Erie/Wyoming Co’s. and sections of the So. Tier later Monday night. Lake effect snow will be heavy Tuesday. A weak disturbance Tuesday could push the heavier lake snow band towards the Buffalo metro early, before returning south later Tuesday night. Anyone leaving home on Tuesday should make sure they are prepared for heavy snow, and very gusty winds. The wind will produce blowing snow later in the afternoon, leading to very bad driving conditions, as well as bring wind chill values in the single digits. Conditions should remain favorable for additional lake effect snow into Wednesday and possibly Thursday with some oscillation of the snow band across the region.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Snow Showers develop with around 1-2″ of accumulation possible by morning, Low: 27 hills-32 metro, Wind: Light SW/E
MONDAY: Frequent Snow, possibly with some raindrops or mixed precipitation during the morning especially east of the Genesee Valley, additional accumulation should be limited by the mix and above freezing temperatures to around 1-2″ later in the day, High: 31 hills-36 metro, Wind: Lt E/SW 8-16.
MONDAY NIGHT: Becoming Much Colder and Very Windy, Snow Showers, Localized heavier lake effect snow may develop close to the immediate southern suburbs of Buffalo before quickly shifting further southward into the ski country of So. Erie/Wyoming Co’s and northern sections of the So. Tier. Some areas south of the city could receive around a foot of snow by morning, Low: 22
TUESDAY: Very Cold and Windy, with Snow Showers. Heavier lake snow will oscillate across the Niagara Frontier with significant additional snowfall accumulation in spots, Considerable Blowing/Drifting Snow resulting in limited visibility and difficult travel conditions, Wind: WSW 20-30, High: 25 hills-28, Low: 19
WEDNESDAY: Windy, Cold, Scattered Snow Showers and Localized Heavier Lake Effect Snow, High: 30, Low: 26
THURSDAY: Windy, Cold, Scattered Snow Showers and Localized Heavier Lake Effect Snow is possible, High: 31, Low: 22
FRIDAY: Partly Sunny with a chance of Flurries or lighter Snow Showers, High: 31, Low: 23
SATURDAY: Partly Cloudy, not as cold, with a chance of a few Rain Showers later, High: 38, Low: 35
SUNDAY: Mostly Cloudy, Rain showers develop, High: 43, Low: 35
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